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by Dave Brown July 2025
As seen from my 2019 slide set, FARMERS IN OUR LIVES, lots of changes have taken place in our food and agricultural systems since the early 1900s — mechanization … new high-yielding varieties … huge demands for irrigation water … “Green Revolutions” in many developing countries … attention to soil conservation … specialization … large farms, processors and food chains … yet much liking for small-farmers markets, pick-your-own, local wineries and such.
Besides the serious, large-scale food problems in many low-income countries, we in the U.S. still have “food deserts”, and quite a few people without healthy diets or means to buy enough food.
Wearing my big-picture cap (I was Chief of the UN/FAO Situation and Outlook Service, 1982-87), let me offer some forward guesstimating, based on info sources that I follow:
Some foods that we have relied on from the U.S. West and elsewhere may no longer be so abundant, dependable and economical. Urban pressures for land, good water, workers, and environmentally friendly surroundings are making it tougher to have big irrigation or feedlot ag. Other countries will be more strongly in the ag and food picture, on supply and demand sides both. It will be a wobbly scene from year to year, amid droughts, flooding, heat spells, disease losses, improved-seed shortages, trade and transport bottlenecks, and national/regional turmoils.
If we are prudent consumers, we’ll readily modify the kinds and sources of grain and animal products, vegetables, fruits, beverages, oils, etc. that we buy when shopping. Some price changes in our stores will be part of emerging trends that last. Some will reflect new tariffs and trade agreements. Some prices will have regular seasonal ups and downs. But there will be other price changes that reflect unusual weather, pest problems, and such.
Here in the Northeast, if food processors, grocery chains, eating places, and assistance programs are on their toes, they will take closer looks at produce that farmers right here in the Northeast might provide. Not just nice-to-have, but more of our basic needs as well, maybe. Farmers’ markets, and community gardens have shown that quite a bit can be grown on smallish open spaces tucked amid urban growth. High-hoops (plastic greenhouses) extend the growing seasons of greens, tomatoes, etc. Pick-you-own berries, apples, etc. substitute an enjoyable, instructive family outing for need to hire scarce labor. Community Supported Agriculture networks are enabling farmers and interested customers to make pre-season contracts for fresh produce during much of the year.
Exciting new frontiers are being explored for medium-scale, yet not land-hungry, farming operations here in the Northeast — hydroponics on abandoned properties … vertical farming on walls … urban roof-top … beneath solar panels.
These new farming and food-source approaches will bring their own challenges:
> attuning what is grown to foods that are desired in our area, and also healthy and affordable
> need for intensive ag systems to use/recycle clean water, guard against pathogens, keep their heavily tracked soil media from compacting or eroding, avoid contaminated drainages, etc.
> need before long to get real about what is and is not financially feasible, even though special grants and front-end funding may have helped them to get rolling
> need to stay in tune with changing food preferences, including emerging popularity of types that new ethnic groups in our midst bring with them.
If such agri-food innovations come into being in our region, they will bring fresh opportunities for second-career seekers and for young people in private-sector as well as public-service spheres. And needs for secondary-school, college, experience-gaining and mid-career learning opportunities to match.
Our new-era local, state and Congressional leaders will have key roles in setting the legal-authorization stages for mid-21st Century agricultural systems in our vicinity that provide safe, healthy foods which are accessible to everyone … that are produced in environmentally friendly ways … that are economically viable … and that are not bureaucratic hassles to bring to fruition.
If you’d like to get closer to this, here are online links that may help:
Re improving diets and food access, a good starting point is see things through the eyes of particular groups in particular neighborhoods. It may not only be a matter of having enough money all month long. A person/family may not be near a store or farmers’ market where healthy, easy-to-prepare foods that fit ethnic preferences can be bought. Eating places where friends gather may feature very tempting bad stuff. This article from Cleveland Clinic says it well: https://health.clevelandclinic.org/food-desert-food-insecurity/
Here in Rhode Island, the RI Food Policy Council is emerging as an important influence and resource toward tackling hunger, family food insecurities and unhealthy diets via better links with our farmers, encouragement of sustainable practices, reduction of food waste, and more. https://rifoodcouncil.org/ RIFPC staff have woven together a cohesive diagnostic frame, together with an unusually comprehensive Data Dashboard that helps to pinpoint where and what the most urgent needs are, as well as key facts about Rhode Island’s agriculture, food systems, seafood aspects, and climate-change considerations. https://rifoodcouncil.org/data-dashboard/
RIFPC’s work in Rhode Island dovetails with skilled analyses and visioning being done by the New England Food System Planners Partnership, which highlights a ’30 by ’30 goal — 30% of New England’s food consumption to be produced/harvested/caught in New England farming and fisheries areas by the year 2030. https://nefoodsystemplanners.org/
I urge taking a look at the broader world picture once in a while, to help sort out whether local food “shortages” and price increases are just normal seasonal … or whether something unusual is happening … or whether more enduring shifts are taking place, some of which may create “space” for innovative agriculturalists here to fill. Data and writings from many sources treat single commodities in bits and pieces, often from the standpoint of a single location or producer group. The UN/Food and Agriculture Organization offers a fuller spectrum of short-, medium- and long-term situation and outlook information: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/ Also, FAO offers a suite of annual Flagship publications that tie things together in terms of human situations and policy implications, and feature some new possibilities that seem important. https://www.fao.org/publications/home/fao-flagship-publications/en
Coming back down to earth, farmers who produce food products continually have to blend such big-picture insights with potentials and constraints of their own situations. They have to make complex production and marketing decisions — not just one year to the next, but from week to week as a season unfolds, often in unexpected ways. People who aim to encourage better food systems should try to see things through the eyes of folks in farming communities. Here in the U.S. Northeast, one publication that helps me to do this is Lancaster Farming.
Part of the story is that many farmers who produce food in the U.S. are getting older, but do not have family members who want to continue their operations. Some non-profit groups have been formed to help folks who’d like to get into farming to find good matches with farms that are becoming available. One such group here in New England is Land for Good.
The American Farmland Trust is a nationwide advocate and source of helps to forward-looking farmers and ag service providers who want to be part of sustainable land-use systems. Besides weighing in on national policy proposals, AFT reaches down into specific regions, including New England. https://farmland.org/new-england-resource-directory-for-farmers/
The agricultural section of the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management has a tradition of being helpful to small farmers. Lots of useful information is on its website. Note the interfaces with sustainable forest, wildlife and fisheries management, and the attention to farmer stress problems, food safety and hunger reduction. https://dem.ri.gov/natural-resources-bureau/agriculture-and-forest-environment/agriculture
The University of Rhode Island still offers several well received Extension education and qualification services related to commercial, community and home food systems and agriculture, plus new ones related to food safety and reduction of food waste. Also, note URI’s push to attract students toward careers related to sustainable emerging food and ag needs. https://web.uri.edu/coopext/programs/food-systems/
USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service can help you make a land-use plan that blends adequate earnings with good stewardship. NRCS people can steer you to some financial helps and provide technical guidance. NRCS works through area Conservation Districts whose staff and board members know local situations, can be helpful sounding boards, and serve as non-bureaucratic starting-points. Here’s a link to our Eastern Rhode Island Conservation District. As you see, ERICD’s leaders add a spirit to it all and are going beyond usual NRCS programs to introduce sustainable ag to students, families and town leaders in creative ways. https://www.easternriconservation.org/
